Annual Quarter Cast

Review One year ago, when we provided our annual forecast, we estimated that the S&P 500 would get up to 2284 in 2016. The high for the year was 2278, which was hit on Tuesday of last week. A year ago we predicted that the 10 year yield would get up to 2.6% by the end of 2016. When rates drifted lower we changed our forecast to 2.4% in June, and then lowered it again to 2.2% in August. On December 16 the 10 year treasury yield hit it’s high for the year at 2.6%. We should have stuck with our original prediction. Lastly, we forecast that GNP growth would come in at 2.7% for 2016. While we haven’t seen the final numbers for the year, it looks like the US economy will grow by around 2.1%

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